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June 2026

Forecasting Bitcoin Beyond the Power Law Using Log Periodicity and Financial Stress
A parsimonious model with only two log-periodic modes and financial conditions leading by 9 weeks explains almost 90% of Bitcoin’s recent power-law…
 • Stephen Perrenod
Log-Log-Log Candlesticks: Scale-Invariant Bitcoin Charts
Triple Log Candles and Growth-Optimal Kelly Criteria
 • Stephen Perrenod
Realized Capital Log-Periodicity
Same λ≈2 Log-Periodic Structure Appears in Both Price and Realized Cap per Bitcoin
 • Stephen Perrenod
The Trust Capital Power Law
Bitcoin’s power laws as the expression of trust capital accumulation
 • Stephen Perrenod
Bitcoin Structural Sharpe Ratio and Continuous Kelly Fraction
The evolution of Bitcoin's risk-reward profile
 • Stephen Perrenod
Bitcoin’s Two Leashes
Age-dependent volatility model indicates Bitcoin’s price now at the most negative local Z-score in its history
 • Stephen Perrenod
Bitcoin’s Power Law Passes a Major Statistical Test
Εvidence that Bitcoin’s long-term power law is not merely a coincidence
 • Stephen Perrenod
Bitcoin’s Not-so-Hidden Structure
Log-Periodic Modes improve both Structural Fit and Forecasting
 • Stephen Perrenod

May 2026

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