Thank you for this wealth of information and analysis. I did have a couple of questions, as this analysis seems divorced from the reality of taxes in the US, in particular. (1) Does this analysis change when accounting for capital gains tax, short and long term? And, with this taxation issue in mind, and after also reading your 2020 post comparing multiple trading/hodling approaches, wouldn't buying and hodling monthly outperforms everything, while selling only the extended 10% periods when needed for USD? Thanks again!
Yes of course it does but it is impossible to take account of everyone's tax situation and many readers are not American. There are no taxes included, so it would be best to consider in a retirement account with custodial BTC or ETFs if possible. And yes in a taxable account selling only in the highest 10% or 20% if you need to makes sense again as appropriate for your situation. And better to hold for at least long-term capital rates. Perhaps one is saving for a large purchase. Should you sell some Bitcoin or some fiat based asset (either might be taxable) could depend on how your portfolio looks and Kelly analysis can help guide the thinking.
Thank you for this wealth of information and analysis. I did have a couple of questions, as this analysis seems divorced from the reality of taxes in the US, in particular. (1) Does this analysis change when accounting for capital gains tax, short and long term? And, with this taxation issue in mind, and after also reading your 2020 post comparing multiple trading/hodling approaches, wouldn't buying and hodling monthly outperforms everything, while selling only the extended 10% periods when needed for USD? Thanks again!
Yes of course it does but it is impossible to take account of everyone's tax situation and many readers are not American. There are no taxes included, so it would be best to consider in a retirement account with custodial BTC or ETFs if possible. And yes in a taxable account selling only in the highest 10% or 20% if you need to makes sense again as appropriate for your situation. And better to hold for at least long-term capital rates. Perhaps one is saving for a large purchase. Should you sell some Bitcoin or some fiat based asset (either might be taxable) could depend on how your portfolio looks and Kelly analysis can help guide the thinking.