Great foresight, Stephen, for using M3 as a liquidity proxy in absence of Howell's GLI data, M2 is limited for this purpose. The peak of Hurst exponent was last year, 2024 October, according to your calculation with Bitcoin bubble peak likely to occur Q4 2025. The liquidity is however pointing to first half of 2026 as the bubble peak, if all else equal. How do you reconcile these scenario?
Thanks I would not expect the two to agree closely and see the Hurst exponent as suggestive, less predictive, and also perhaps that was not its true peak for this cycle. More significant if we get to 7% level in M3 maybe we are there now but the series info lags. I also want to see both BTC/$ and BTC/Au make it through the transition zone. For $ up in the 90s can get us into the start of the bubble but to confirm against gold is noticeably higher. Bubble prediction is much trickier than the power law core which is quite tight.
Great foresight, Stephen, for using M3 as a liquidity proxy in absence of Howell's GLI data, M2 is limited for this purpose. The peak of Hurst exponent was last year, 2024 October, according to your calculation with Bitcoin bubble peak likely to occur Q4 2025. The liquidity is however pointing to first half of 2026 as the bubble peak, if all else equal. How do you reconcile these scenario?
Thanks I would not expect the two to agree closely and see the Hurst exponent as suggestive, less predictive, and also perhaps that was not its true peak for this cycle. More significant if we get to 7% level in M3 maybe we are there now but the series info lags. I also want to see both BTC/$ and BTC/Au make it through the transition zone. For $ up in the 90s can get us into the start of the bubble but to confirm against gold is noticeably higher. Bubble prediction is much trickier than the power law core which is quite tight.
Such a great post!
thanks for that!!!!