1. Ethereum is presently an Oscillator since it is a Proof-of-Work coin. It's not a real contender, if it was going to pass Bitcoin in market cap it would have by now. One has to distinguish between value stored in ETH and what it enables in 'derivatives' ICOs, IEOs, DeFi, NFTs, where the value is in second and third layers. I believe it could become a Degenerator as it goes through the switch to PoS which is going to throw away a lot of value, in my estimation. About half of the log of Bitcoin's market cap is due to Security and Security comes from hash rate, most of the other half is due to Supply. Ethereum will throw away a lot of security as it stops mining. Despite the burning, Ethereum's supply is up more in % terms the past year than is Bitcoin's.
2. So far it has good evidence of a Lindy effect, and the question is where it hits the knee of the S-curve. A Lindy extrapolation takes it to over $300,000 or so expected value by end of this decade. This is a real-life experiment so we don't know. I think we see it first as a second legal tender for more and more small economies and as treasury reserve and sovereign wealth fund component for some others. First it has to surpass government gold at around $2 to $2.5 trillion. One step at a time. There is growing instability in fiat currencies and trade relationships and economies in general, crises could accelerate adoption.
Further question against #1: Are there any smart contract enabled PoW coins that would replace ETH2 as the default oscillator?
Further question against #2: What are the major Black Swans or Thucydides Trap indicators between crypto and fiat? How could one compare the NVT ratio of Bitcoin against the S&P500 P/E ratio or US Bond Yield? What about Altcoins and EM Index or Bonds?
2A: T Trap China has peaked huge demographic crisis and loss of flexibility under Xi. They will push their e-CNY with trading partners. Black Swan I don’t know but we will see more small countries looking at BTC as a reserve alternative and maybe legal tender alongside or rather than $, €, gold. More volatility and chaos in fiat world, gradually lower vol. in BTC. 2B : I don’t track NVT look at Woo’s work sometimes. But inverse monetary velocity is not a yield equivalent. One should just compare Bitcoin yield on deposits, 3 or 4%, to US bond yield or S&P earnings yield. 2C: Have no interest in Altcoins.
Further questioning:
1. Is Ethereum an Oscillator, a Degenerator, or a contender against Bitcoin. (see Woobull) https://woobull.com/the-two-types-of-altcoins-an-investors-view/ https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-ethereum-portfolio-allocation/comment/6924660?s=r
2. Can bitcoin survive the Lindy Effect, and if so, what are the key index that it can beat national currencies? https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-lindy-model?s=r https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-long-term-value?s=r
1. Ethereum is presently an Oscillator since it is a Proof-of-Work coin. It's not a real contender, if it was going to pass Bitcoin in market cap it would have by now. One has to distinguish between value stored in ETH and what it enables in 'derivatives' ICOs, IEOs, DeFi, NFTs, where the value is in second and third layers. I believe it could become a Degenerator as it goes through the switch to PoS which is going to throw away a lot of value, in my estimation. About half of the log of Bitcoin's market cap is due to Security and Security comes from hash rate, most of the other half is due to Supply. Ethereum will throw away a lot of security as it stops mining. Despite the burning, Ethereum's supply is up more in % terms the past year than is Bitcoin's.
2. So far it has good evidence of a Lindy effect, and the question is where it hits the knee of the S-curve. A Lindy extrapolation takes it to over $300,000 or so expected value by end of this decade. This is a real-life experiment so we don't know. I think we see it first as a second legal tender for more and more small economies and as treasury reserve and sovereign wealth fund component for some others. First it has to surpass government gold at around $2 to $2.5 trillion. One step at a time. There is growing instability in fiat currencies and trade relationships and economies in general, crises could accelerate adoption.
Further question against #1: Are there any smart contract enabled PoW coins that would replace ETH2 as the default oscillator?
Further question against #2: What are the major Black Swans or Thucydides Trap indicators between crypto and fiat? How could one compare the NVT ratio of Bitcoin against the S&P500 P/E ratio or US Bond Yield? What about Altcoins and EM Index or Bonds?
2A: T Trap China has peaked huge demographic crisis and loss of flexibility under Xi. They will push their e-CNY with trading partners. Black Swan I don’t know but we will see more small countries looking at BTC as a reserve alternative and maybe legal tender alongside or rather than $, €, gold. More volatility and chaos in fiat world, gradually lower vol. in BTC. 2B : I don’t track NVT look at Woo’s work sometimes. But inverse monetary velocity is not a yield equivalent. One should just compare Bitcoin yield on deposits, 3 or 4%, to US bond yield or S&P earnings yield. 2C: Have no interest in Altcoins.
#1 not sure but Solidity can run on top of ETC https://medium.com/@yazanator/kotti-solidity-etc-oh-my-2ae36926454d