Forecasting Bitcoin with Continuous and Discrete Scale Invariance:
Timing, Amplitude, and Price Through 2030 (2040)
This is not investment advice.
Executive Summary
Bitcoin’s price dynamics can be decomposed into a power-law trend, log-oscillations that determine timing, and secondary effects that modulate amplitude. Extending this framework into a forecast, the next major cycle peak is projected to be in 2029, consistent with the system’s discrete scale invariance (DSI), driven by log-periodic phase alignment with additional uplift from the 2028 halving impulse.
Price levels are governed by three components in order of relative importance: the power-law baseline, log-periodic phase alignment from two modes, and a linear cycle halving impulse. A small macro term, represented by financial conditions (ANFCI), acts primarily as a damping or reinforcing influence rather than a driver. As Bitcoin matures, oscillation amplitude and volatility continue to decline, tightening forecast ranges.
From Model to Forecast
In a previous article we showed how the model is constructed:
The model includes, in order of importance, the long term power law trend, two log-periodic (LP) modes, and a linear cycle primarily determined by a halving impulse. There is also finally a small macro term, here represented by the ANFCI financial conditions weekly signal. That term is only used for historical fitting, not for projection.
